{"index":"WTH U.S. AI Data Center Power Cost & Grid Stress Index","version":"1.0","built":"2026-08-17","n_markets":31,"methodology":{"scoring":"Percentile rank 0-100 across the UNIQUE (state, balancing authority, eGRID subregion) units in this index, then joined back onto every metro sharing that unit. 100 = most favourable to a buyer adding load. Metros that share a state and a grid share a score by construction; the metros_sharing_this_unit field says how many.","composite":"AI Power Readiness = 0.45*Cost + 0.35*Grid Stress + 0.20*Carbon. Weights are an editorial judgement, disclosed and adjustable in the published tool.","stress":"Grid Stress = 0.50*seasonal peak headroom + 0.30*inverse ramp volatility + 0.20*inverse day-ahead forecast error. Balancing-authority level, not metro level. Headroom compares the trailing 30-day mean of daily peaks against the 99.9th-percentile hour observed in the SAME calendar window across prior years, so a winter-peaking grid is not credited with headroom for being measured in August.","carbon":"Carbon score ranks the OBSERVED intensity computed from each balancing authority's measured 30-day generation mix times EPA fuel-specific CO2 rates. The EPA eGRID subregion figure is published alongside as the citable reference. Where the two diverge by more than 25% the row carries a carbon_flag.","scenario":"Energy-only cost. PUE 1.3, 100% utilisation, 730 h/month, state industrial retail price. Excludes demand charges, capacity charges, transmission riders, negotiated contracts, taxes and incentives.","local_constraint_note":"The Local Interconnection Reality column is qualitative and sourced but deliberately excluded from the numeric score. Markets sharing a balancing authority and a state share identical grid and price inputs; that column is where they diverge.","known_limits":["Observed carbon intensity is computed from generation INSIDE each balancing authority. It ignores imports and exports, so an import-heavy grid understates the carbon content of the power it actually consumes. The eGRID subregion figure is published alongside for that reason.","Scores are computed over unique state-plus-grid units, not over the metro list, so the ranking cannot be moved by adding or removing metros that share a grid. Metros sharing a unit share a score, which is a real limitation of resolution, not a bug.","There is no grid-slack component in the stress score. Flat load growth is indistinguishable in this data from saturated load growth, and treating slow growth as available headroom scored a state under a construction moratorium as the least-stressed grid in the index.","State-average industrial retail price is a proxy. No large data center pays it. Real deals are negotiated, often with special contracts, and increasingly with dedicated large-load tariffs.","Balancing-authority grid conditions are broader than a metro. PJM covers 13 states; Ashburn's local constraint is a substation and transmission problem PJM-wide data cannot see.","eGRID2023 is the current vintage as of Aug 2026, so carbon intensity lags the grid by roughly two years and understates recent solar and storage additions.","Metros spanning multiple balancing authorities are mapped to the primary BA carrying the data center corridor; the alternate is disclosed per row.","Forecast error above 15% is flagged LOW_CONFIDENCE and excluded from the stress score, because it usually indicates sparse day-ahead forecast publication rather than genuine operational surprise."]},"sources":{"grid":"U.S. EIA, Hourly Electric Grid Monitor (EIA-930 BALANCE files)","grid_url":"https://www.eia.gov/electricity/gridmonitor/","grid_window":"Jan 1 00:00 UTC through 08-18 04:00 UTC, identical hour count every year, Feb 29 excluded","price":"EIA Electric Power Monthly Table 5.6.A, industrial sector, May 2026 (released 2026-07-23, preliminary, Form EIA-861M)","price_url":"https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/xls/table_5_06_a.xlsx","carbon":"EPA eGRID2023 Rev.2 Summary Tables, Table 1 (released 2025-06-12)","carbon_url":"https://www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2025-06/summary_tables_rev2.pdf"},"benchmarks":{"us_industrial_price_c_kwh":8.71,"us_grid_co2e_lb_mwh":770.9,"median_10mw_year_usd":9491898.0,"us_industrial_price_2025_c_kwh":8.29,"us_industrial_price_yoy_pct":5.1},"markets":[{"rank":1,"m":"Central Washington (Quincy)","st":"WA","ba":"BPAT","alt":null,"eg":"NWPP","tier":"Emerging","scoring_unit":"WA/BPAT/NWPP","metros_sharing_this_unit":2,"price_c_kwh":7.24,"price_may2025_c_kwh":6.8,"price_yoy_pct":6.5,"price_vs_us_pct":-16.9,"cost_1mw_year_usd":824491,"cost_10mw_year_usd":8244912,"cost_50mw_year_usd":41224560,"cost_100mw_year_usd":82449120,"co2e_lb_mwh":635.3,"co2e_lb_mwh_observed":104.2,"carbon_flag":"EGRID_SUBREGION_NOT_DISCRIMINATING","co2e_1mw_tonnes_year":538,"ba_demand_now_mw":6542,"ba_obs_utc":"2026-08-17 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country."},{"rank":2,"m":"Seattle","st":"WA","ba":"BPAT","alt":"PSEI","eg":"NWPP","tier":"Secondary","scoring_unit":"WA/BPAT/NWPP","metros_sharing_this_unit":2,"price_c_kwh":7.24,"price_may2025_c_kwh":6.8,"price_yoy_pct":6.5,"price_vs_us_pct":-16.9,"cost_1mw_year_usd":824491,"cost_10mw_year_usd":8244912,"cost_50mw_year_usd":41224560,"cost_100mw_year_usd":82449120,"co2e_lb_mwh":635.3,"co2e_lb_mwh_observed":104.2,"carbon_flag":"EGRID_SUBREGION_NOT_DISCRIMINATING","co2e_1mw_tonnes_year":538,"ba_demand_now_mw":6542,"ba_obs_utc":"2026-08-17 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directive."},{"rank":5,"m":"Houston","st":"TX","ba":"ERCO","alt":null,"eg":"ERCT","tier":"Secondary","scoring_unit":"TX/ERCO/ERCT","metros_sharing_this_unit":4,"price_c_kwh":6.33,"price_may2025_c_kwh":6.59,"price_yoy_pct":-3.9,"price_vs_us_pct":-27.3,"cost_1mw_year_usd":720860,"cost_10mw_year_usd":7208604,"cost_50mw_year_usd":36043020,"cost_100mw_year_usd":72086040,"co2e_lb_mwh":736.6,"co2e_lb_mwh_observed":653.0,"carbon_flag":"OK","co2e_1mw_tonnes_year":3373,"ba_demand_now_mw":68831,"ba_obs_utc":"2026-08-17 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