The Claim Ledger handles facts. This handles everything above facts — interpretation, prediction, speculation. Each entry declares its evidence, names the mental model it borrowed, states what would prove it wrong, and names the strongest person who disagrees.
None of these are ours. Each is attributed to the person who formulated it, stated in their terms, and used only where it actually applies.
An inference with no falsifier does not ship. If you cannot name the observation that would change your mind, you are not reasoning, you are marketing. Entries marked SPECULATIVE are explicit bets and must never be cited as research findings.